পাতা:বাংলাদেশের স্বাধীনতা যুদ্ধ দলিলপত্র (তৃতীয় খণ্ড).pdf/৮৫২

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বাংলাদেশের স্বাধীনতা যুদ্ধ দলিলপত্রঃ তৃতীয় পত্র

 Nevertheless, if India is at all thinking in positive terms for the Independence of Bangladesh she is to consider the following issues:

 i) The future of an Independent Bangladesh under the leadership of Awami

 League and subsequently under the leadership of other more radical elements.

 ii) The effect of establishing an Independent state on the other states of India.

 Particularly the effect of the precedence that will show that an unarmed and

 disorganized people can manage to over throw an organized and established

 army to win independence. This will have a tremendous psychological effect

 and influence over all the states of this subcontinent.

 iii)The role of the leftist of West Bengal and the possibility of their future demand

 for independence.

 iv) The prospect of Awami League's achieving independence without Indian

 intervention.

 v) Effect of an independence through Indian intervention amongst the common

 people in Bangladesh.

 vi) The communal implications both in India and Bangladesh if India really

 intervenes.

 Therefore, when India extended support for Bangladesh and committed themselves, they did not know the implications of such demand. The conservative Delhi establishment thought that:

 (a) Pakistan would not have that such support from international powers;

 (b)Pakistan would not be able to survive economically;

 (c) that with such a big support from the people Awami League leadership would

 be dynamic enough to hold the ground.

 (d) Pakistan Government would soon come forward to settle the matter with

 Awami League leaders.

 The Indo-Soviet Treaty apparently confirms that India never wanted a war with Pakistan before a time convenient to her. Considering all the aspects and the attitudes shown by the Indian Government in last six months the following can be assumed:

 (i) India would avoid war with Pakistan till such time she would be convinced that:

 (a) India can defeat Pakistan militarily;

 (b) There would be no involvement of any third country;

 (c) The war could be finished with a very short time; say 7 to 10 days.

 And to do so they even may not equip Mukti Bahini in such a manner that will lead to provoke Pakistan into a War or take an initiative for a war.

 (ii) India will not accord recognition till a positive political or military action

 becomes necessary.