642 ংলাদেশের স্বাধীনতা যুদ্ধ দলিলপত্রঃ ত্রয়োদশ খন্ড allowing for budgeted shortfalls) to Rs. 2600 million. After deducting another Rs. 580 million for liabilities of autonomous bodies vis a vis the Government (largely for debt service but also for other claims) which due to lack of own resources tend to be financed, through the budget mechanism, out of investment allocations, actual net investments come down to a level not higher than Rs. 2000 million; and this may yet turn out to be an optimistic estimate for this fiscal year. 60. The outlook-Prospects for the coming fiscal year are shrouded with many uncertainties, There can be little doubt, however, that present conditions do not augur well for a rapid recovery' in fiscal performance, unsatisfactory as it was even under normal circumstances. 61. Preliminary budget estimates of the Government for 1971/72 suggest a recovery in provincial revenues (taxes and other) to somewhat above this year's original budget estimates. While taxes proper arc projected slightly lower, other revenue receipts are expected to exceed the 1970/71 budget level. By all indication, such estimates appear to be highly unrealistic. They imply that total revenues in 1971/72 will be nearly 50% higher than the amount actually collected in 1970/71. Clearly they suggest an almost miraculous pace of economic revival throughout the Province, assumed that the basis of taxation as well as capacity to pay revenues has been left more or less unimpaired, and furthermore, presuppose normal functioning of the entire tax administration and collection system. 62. The Mission found no evidence to support the assumption that such conditions are likely to prevail in die near future. It is thus difficult to accept the above estimates. Merely as a rough guess, even a recover) in provincial revenue performance to about two-thirds of the 1970/71 budget estimates would in our present judgment still imply a commendable effort based on fairly rapid economic recovery and by no means pessimistic assumptions. It may indeed be too optimistic and makes no allowance for tax relief measures which in the circumstances may well be required' to aid economic recovery. 63. According to estimates of the Central Government, adjusted for the built-in liabilities of autonomous bodies, revenues collected in the Province, allocation of certain centrally collected taxes and central loans and grants will provide East Pakistan in 1971/72 with rupee resources amounting to Rs. 2,160 million to finance public programs. This compares with estimated actual resources of Rs. 2,260 million in 1970/71. The Government expects that of this amount. Rs. 1,220 million will be required for non-development expenditures (Rs. 920 million in 1970/71) leaving Rs. 1,040 million for development, rehabilitation of physical assets destroyed in the recent events, and cyclone reconstruction, as compared to Rs. 1,340 million in 1970/71. On the assumption that the Province will be able to absorb Rs. 570 million of project aid, as against Rs. 250 million in 1970/71, the Central Government puts the 1971/72 development program (including rehabilitation and reconstruction as mentioned above) for East Pakistan at Rs. 1,610 million, or roughly the same amount as is now estimated for 1970/71. These estimates call for comment in respect of the resource projection and the use of resources.